Q3 2026 West Africa Maritime Market Report

Quarterly market report covering charter rate trends, port throughput, Dangote production, trade flows, and Q4 2026 outlook for the West African maritime industry.

Published: 25 August 2026 | Analysis by Calmwaters Shipping team

Executive Summary

Q3 2026 showed positive momentum in the West African maritime sector. Charter rates increased across all vessel classes, driven by strong demand from Dangote Refinery crude imports and expanding product exports. Port throughput improved, with Onne and Calabar showing the strongest growth. Gulf of Guinea security continued to improve, with the lowest incident levels in a decade.

Avg Rate Change

+8.5%

Dangote Utilization

89%

Security Incidents

4 (YTD)

Q4 Outlook

Stable to Firm

Charter Rate Trends

Vessel	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Change	Analysis
VLCC	WS 45-55	WS 50-60	+10%	Strong demand from Dangote crude imports and increased long-haul exports to Far East
Suezmax	WS 70-85	WS 75-90	+7%	Steady demand from Europe-bound crude and product exports
Aframax	WS 90-110	WS 95-115	+5%	Regional trades stable, Mediterranean demand increased
MR	$16-20/tonne	$18-22/tonne	+12%	Strong product export demand from Dangote and regional distribution
LR1	$20-26/tonne	$22-28/tonne	+8%	Europe and Americas product exports increased
LR2	$23-30/tonne	$25-32/tonne	+9%	Long-haul product exports to Asia and Americas

Port Throughput

Port	Q2 2026	Q3 2026	Change	Status
Lagos Apapa	185,000 TEU	198,000 TEU	+7%	Congested
Lagos Tin Can	125,000 TEU	132,000 TEU	+6%	Busy
Onne	45,000 tonnes	52,000 tonnes	+16%	Normal
Warri	28,000 tonnes	31,000 tonnes	+11%	Clear
Calabar	12,000 tonnes	14,000 tonnes	+17%	Clear

Dangote Refinery Performance

Production:580,000 bpd

Capacity:650,000 bpd

Utilization:89%

Crude Imports:1.8M bbl/day

Product Exports:320,000 bpd

Lomé Exports:180,000 bpd

Domestic Supply:140,000 bpd

Trade Flow Changes

Nigeria → Far East

VLCC demand increased for crude exports

+12%

Nigeria → Europe

Suezmax demand stable for crude and products

+8%

Dangote → Africa

Product exports to regional markets increased

+15%

Dangote → Americas

LR2 demand for long-haul product exports

+10%

Dangote → Asia

Strong demand for refined products in Asia

+18%

Regional WAF

MR tanker demand for intra-regional trades

+5%

Q4 2026 Outlook

Charter Rates

Stable to firm

OPEC+ production cuts support crude supply, Dangote exports increase product tanker demand

Port Congestion

Moderate improvement

NPA infrastructure investments ongoing, but Apapa congestion persists

Dangote Production

Increasing

Targeting full capacity by year-end, crude imports and product exports to rise

Security

Improved

Gulf of Guinea incidents at lowest levels, war risk premiums stabilising

Trade Flows

Expanding

AfCFTA implementation boosting intra-African trade, new export routes developing

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